Grain Supply Security and the Strategic Role of Türkiye

At World Grain & Pulses Forum 2026, Ahmet Guldal, Chairman and General Director of the Turkish Grain Council (TMO), presented an in-depth overview of global grain supply security and Türkiye’s evolving role within the international grain system.

His presentation highlighted three interconnected dimensions: the expansion of global grain supply, Türkiye’s domestic production and consumption balance, and the strategic importance of infrastructure in ensuring market stability.

Over the past two decades, the scale of the global grain market has increased significantly.

In the 2007/2008 season, total world grain supply stood at 2,040 million tons. By the 2025/2026 season, that figure had reached 3,095 million tons.

This substantial growth reflects increases in both production and stock levels. While the expansion of supply enhances global food availability, it also raises the complexity of managing trade flows, maintaining price stability, and coordinating international grain movements.

As global supply systems grow larger, resilience and institutional capacity become increasingly important for food security.

Türkiye remains a significant regional grain producer.

According to the presented data, total grain production has fluctuated between approximately 34.2 million tons and 42.2 million tons, reflecting variability influenced by climatic conditions and agricultural cycles.

The balance between production and domestic consumption remains a central issue in national grain policy. Over the years, production and consumption trends in wheat, barley, and corn demonstrate the need for continuous monitoring and adaptive management.

Ahmet Guldal emphasized that maintaining equilibrium between domestic supply and demand is essential not only for internal stability but also for sustaining Türkiye’s broader trade and processing activities.

Wheat remains a cornerstone of Türkiye’s grain system.

The data presented shows a consistent interaction between domestic production and consumption, supported when necessary by imports managed by TMO.

A significant share of wheat imports originates from Russia:
• Approximately 84% of TMO wheat imports come from Russia,
• while 16% come from other countries.

This structure illustrates both strong bilateral trade relations and the strategic importance of diversified sourcing to mitigate risk.

A similar pattern is visible in the barley market.

Russia accounts for:
• 58% of TMO barley imports,
• while 42% are sourced from other origins.

The data also shows that Russian supply plays a substantial role in overall barley trade flows involving Türkiye. As in the wheat sector, maintaining diversified supply channels remains an important consideration for long-term stability.

Unlike wheat and barley, corn imports demonstrate a more diversified structure.

Russian-origin corn represents approximately 36%, while 64% comes from other suppliers.

This broader distribution reduces concentration risk and illustrates how sourcing strategies may differ across commodities depending on market dynamics and availability.

Beyond trade flows, infrastructure plays a critical role in grain supply security.

Türkiye’s licensed warehouse capacity has expanded significantly over the past decade. Capacity increased from relatively modest levels in the mid-2010s to approximately 14.3 million tons by 2025.

This growth in certified storage capacity strengthens market transparency, improves stock management, and enhances the resilience of the domestic grain system. Licensed warehousing supports producers, traders, and financial institutions by providing structured storage mechanisms within a regulated framework.

In his presentation, Ahmet Guldal underscored the importance of institutional tools — including public procurement mechanisms and structured storage systems — in ensuring supply stability under volatile global conditions.

The data presented reflects Türkiye’s dual function within the global grain system:

• As a significant producer with fluctuating but substantial output;
• As an importer managing strategic sourcing relationships;
• As a regional processing and trade hub;
• And as a country investing in infrastructure to reinforce food security.

In a global environment characterized by growing demand, shifting trade flows, and supply concentration risks, Türkiye’s integrated approach — combining production, trade management, and storage expansion — contributes to broader regional stability.

Grain supply security today is no longer defined solely by production volumes. It depends equally on institutional capacity, logistics, diversified sourcing, and storage infrastructure.

As highlighted in Ahmet Guldal’s address, strengthening these pillars is essential for maintaining balance in both national and international grain markets.