North Africa’s Grain Market: Why Price Alone Is No Longer Enough
North African grain markets are often viewed through the lens of tenders, prices and import demand. But for suppliers looking to build sustainable business in the region, the commercial reality is more complex.
To explore what really drives purchasing decisions in North Africa and MENA, GLOBENTY invited Pieter Defoor, Founder and CEO of Commo18, an independent grain and oilseed advisory and brokerage based in Antwerp, Belgium.
Through Commo18, Pieter works across agricultural commodity markets, with a focus on procurement advisory, brokerage and trade execution across North Africa, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Drawing on his extensive experience working with buyers and suppliers in the region, he shares his perspective on buyer behaviour, market access, commercial relationships and the 2026/27 outlook.
What Do Buyers Really Look For?
Pieter sees two broad groups of buyers in the region: government and private. Their motivations are different, but their behaviour has become increasingly similar. Neither is really hunting for the best price. More often, buyers are looking for the market price, the level their neighbour paid, or slightly below it.
Private importers are primarily driven by their position relative to competitors, while government buyers operate under greater scrutiny of public spending. This encourages purchases within the prevailing market range and contributes to the hand-to-mouth approach now common across the region.
For suppliers, this creates an important opportunity. Buyers may wait for a seller with a committed vessel or line-up position who needs to discount below replacement value. In such situations, the business can go to whoever is liquid and ready when another participant’s execution problem becomes an opportunity.
The Information Gap Has Changed
One of the biggest changes Pieter has observed is the increasing sophistication of buyers. The average purchasing manager today sits much closer to a trader than five years ago, following supply and demand, yields, export policy, geopolitics and short-term market developments.
As purchasing windows have become shorter, buyers have also become more focused on execution. Pieter describes the change clearly:
“The information gap between trader and buyer has not disappeared, but it has moved: away from flat price and into execution.”
Line-ups, vessel availability and what farmers are actually selling at origin can now be more valuable to a buyer than another general market update.
Price Wins the Tender. It Does Not Win the Account.
Price remains decisive in some situations. In a state tender with a restricted list, the lowest conforming offer is awarded. But the restricted list itself is built around registration, documentation history and past execution.
For private buyers, the equation is broader. Credit and payment structure, quality consistency and the way a seller handles claims can weigh heavily alongside price. A feed compounder operating on a two-week ingredient cycle may pay a premium for a seller who has never caused a stoppage. This is where trust becomes a commercial factor.
Pieter identifies two common mistakes suppliers make: trying to price their way into the market and treating the signed contract as the endpoint.A sharp offer from an unknown supplier may simply become a reference point for the established supplier.
“It prices the business.”
Pieter recalls opening the Algerian private market during his earlier career at Glencore. He spent two years travelling, attending events and building relationships without signing a contract. When the first business came, it was executed properly, and the relationship generated significantly more business afterwards.
The lesson is simple: Build presence before expecting business.
And once the contract is signed, the relationship still needs to be maintained.
“Look at it as the audition.”
Why Continuity Matters
For Pieter, successful suppliers in North Africa are usually those who keep the same person on the market for years. Every problem solved together, claim settled fairly and visit made when there was no business to discuss contributes to trust. When commercial desks rotate every two or three years, that relationship can effectively start again.
“The new man inherits the contacts, not the trust.”
Presence does not necessarily require an office or an agent. It requires regularity — staying visible, understanding the buyer’s market and remaining available when something goes wrong.
For companies entering the region, Pieter sees this as a strategic decision:
“Who you put on this region, and how long you commit to keeping him there, is your regional strategy.”
2026/27: It Is an Access Problem
Looking ahead, Pieter believes the key issue for the 2026/27 season is not simply global supply and demand, but access.
In his assessment, there is plenty of grain in the world, while the more immediate challenge is the ability to load it, insure it and sail it out. Among the developments he was monitoring in early August were reported Black Sea war-risk cover of up to 2% of vessel value, Russian August wheat shipments estimated at 3–3.5 million tonnes versus a five-year August average of around 5 million tonnes, and Ukraine’s reduced export projection for 2026/27.
This changes the question for buyers from: “What is the market worth?”
to: “When, and from whom, can I actually receive?”
Pieter recommends avoiding attempts to perfectly time the market. Instead, buyers without a strong geopolitical view should spread purchases across several entries, anchor their base load around major public buying windows and retain liquidity for opportunistic cargoes.
His approach: “Defensive as a base, opportunistic when it presents itself.”
He also stresses that North Africa should not be treated as one market. Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria have different supply situations and therefore require different approaches. “Three plans, not one.”
Build, Buy or Remain Opportunistic?
For companies looking to expand in North Africa and MENA, Pieter identifies three options.
Build: assign someone to the region and invest the time required to develop relationships. Buy: bring in someone who already has experience and market access, while recognising that the relationships remain attached to the individual. Remain opportunistic: service the region from a distant desk, appearing when there is length to place and disappearing after the fixture.
For Pieter, the third option is the default — and the mistake. “This region rewards continuity and punishes convenience.”
His final advice is equally direct: decide whether you are investing time or money before making the first offer, and be the counterparty who is still there in March.
About the Expert Insight
This article is based on an exclusive expert contribution prepared by Pieter Defoor for GLOBENTY as part of the BBS Grain 2026 Speaker Series.
His contribution offers a practical view of grain buyer behaviour, market access, commercial relationships and execution across North Africa and MENA.
Pieter Defoor will bring his perspective to Balkans & Black Sea Grain 2026 in Istanbul, where he will participate in the session “Import Demand: Where Are the Next Growth Markets?”
The session will examine global grain demand, key importing markets, exporter competition and emerging trade opportunities across the Middle East and Africa.