On February 18, at the Global Grain & Pulses Forum in Dubai in Dubai, one of the region’s leading grain trade conferences, David Whitcomb, Head of Research (Peak Trading Research), presented an overview of the key macroeconomic and market factors shaping the global grain export market in 2025.
The Four Pillars of the 2025 Grain Market
Whitcomb introduced his "Grain Playbook 2025" — a framework summarizing everything that defines grain pricing today:
Macro: oil is rising, the dollar is weakening.
Market Structure: funds are driving the market.
Momentum: CTA activity fuels volatility.
Monthly Seasonals: time to build positions.
MACROECONOMICS: Currency Instability Leads to Steady Demand
According to Whitcomb, investors are once again seeking protection from uncertainty — and are increasingly turning toward agricultural commodities and grain trade opportunities.
A weaker dollar, rising inflation, and higher oil prices are creating an ideal environment for commodity and agri business markets.
"Dollar Down = Ags Up" — a formula that sounds especially relevant in 2025.
MARKET STRUCTURE: Funds as Key Market Movers
Whitcomb’s research shows that the balance of power on grain exchanges has shifted sharply toward funds.
They now play a leading role in shaping the grain trade market.
Among them, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) funds stand out — their trading activity is driven by automated algorithms.
Whitcomb highlighted these as a separate and significant factor influencing price formation in global grain logistics and agri supply chains.
MOMENTUM: When Algorithms Move the Market
The grain trade has increasingly become an arena for major financial players.
CTA funds and index strategies now account for up to 70% of all wheat trading activity.
Algorithms react faster than humans — and they often create those sudden "squeezes" when the market unexpectedly reverses direction.
CTA systems analyze massive datasets — prices, volumes, trends, and volatility — and automatically open or close positions.
They don’t "predict" the market; they follow momentum: if prices rise, they buy more; if they fall, they sell, amplifying the move.
When enough of these players act together, they can turn even a small shift into a powerful trend across global trade corridors.
"CTA firepower" is not a metaphor — it’s a real force that drives market momentum, Whitcomb noted.
SEASONALITY: Predictable Shifts in Demand and Price
In Peak Trading Research’s analytics, seasonality refers to recurring market patterns that appear at roughly the same time each year.
Based on data from the past 12–14 years, January to March represents the typical "Time to Build" phase — when funds and commercial traders start building long positions in anticipation of higher prices ahead of the Northern Hemisphere planting season.
During this phase, the market gradually shifts from post-harvest oversupply to a period of renewed expectations and demand growth.
Statistically, the probability of positive performance during this window reaches 85–90% across key grains — wheat, corn, and soybeans.
A Market Driven by Four Forces
The global grain market today operates by more than just the laws of harvest and weather.
It’s a system where investment fund decisions, macroeconomic signals, and CTA algorithms have as much influence as climate or demand.
Understanding these four forces is key — not just to observing the agriculture and grain trade, but to staying one step ahead of it.
Next Forum — Global Grain & Pulses Forum, 2026, Dubai
📍 UAE, Dubai | January 26–28, 2026
Join one of the largest international forums for the grain and pulses industry, bringing together over 1,100 participants from 55+ countries — key players in grain trade, logistics, and agribusiness.
Discover the latest trends shaping global grain markets, pulses trade, and container logistics — only at the Global Grain & Pulses Forum 2026 in Dubai.